The Gunpowder Treason succeeds -but where was Prince Henry Stuart?

      Is an Alternative History of the Gunpowder Treason Possible?

So far there was nothing in the Plot itself which guaranteed failure -and with its sheer daring, there was a great hope of a triumphant if gruesome success -Antonia Fraser  ( 2005)

Not everyone agrees that there is any value in 'What If' speculation. 'Facts, facts, facts,' as Mr Bounderby from 'Hard Times' would put it, 'You are never to fancy'. 

On the other hand counter factual history has been popular in recent decades and it is surprising that few seem to have fancied what would have had happened, if in fact Westminster been devastated by gunpowder as intended back in 1605. With a huge swathe of Britain's ruling elite amongst thousands of casualties, there would have been a power vacuum. Along with horrendous damage to the city itself, dying and injured to attend to, countless funerals to organise. Administration records destroyed in the blast. 

                           Coombe Abbey , Warwickshire, (from 2016) Courtesy of Gareth Nolan 

The 5th November -Bonfire Night- next to Remembrance Sunday- became an event which defined national identity. The attempt to devastate Westminster in 1605 of course failed. The authorities decided to turn something that didn't happen into an event by deciding  that the deliverance from massive bloodshed and the failure to blast England and Wales into a restoration of the Catholic faith should be an event in itself. 

There were essentially  three elements to the conspiracy. Firstly secret negotiations between the 'plotters with Spain to encourage an invasion to support a rising of English Catholics. Such schemes faltered with the Treaty of London of 1604. Spain and England were no longer at war. Secondly, the attempt to cause an explosion at the state opening of Parliament when nearly all the ruling elite would actually be gathered in one place. Thirdly, in the wake of the carnage devised on 5th November, a rebellion would be launched in the West Midlands. The great blow against Westminster was stopped , a small rebellion still went ahead. After attracting little support, and even some of the original participants deserting. It ended in a final stand off at Holbeach House in Staffordshire on 8th November 1605. 

But what if the immediate attack on Westminster had succeeded? Soon news  to this effect and plenty of rumours hit the Midlands in the aftermath giving further incentive to Catholics-perhaps other subjects- tempted to rebel? Of course there are many factors to consider. It is still hard to predict whether or not county sheriffs could still have organised local militias to suppress disorder when central authority itself had effectively broken down. The Jesuit priests in hiding may have emerged, but whether they could have been in a position to swiftly intervene in the general aftermath to either placate or to perhaps support a Catholic rebellion, is hard to gauge. And with the main signatories to the Treaty of London killed, Spain may have decided that its terms were no longer valid and sent military support, perhaps drawing on troops from the Spanish Netherlands. 

York based author Tony Morgan has written two recent novels 'Remember the 6th November ' and '1617' in which the great blow against Westminster succeeds. But the subsequent rebellion in the Midlands still fails. James daughter Elizabeth, nine years old and living at Coombe Abbey in Warwickshire succeeds the throne to become Elizabeth II. 

Keith Roberts' novel Pavane' (1976) , in which Elizabeth 1 is assassinated in 1588 and the Spanish Armada lands in the resulting chaos tries to envisage how 20th century England would have developed with the Reformation being reversed. Then there is Kingsley Amis 'The Alteration' (1976)   an alternative history where Marin Luther becomes Pope, there is no Reformation, and the Tudor dynasty produces enough male heirs to survive.

In 2005 both Professor Ronald Hutton and  Lady Antonia Fraser both tried to imagine 'What If the Gunpowder Plot succeeded ' scenarios. 

Professor Hutton took the line that the majority of the Catholic population would have been horrified and still not have joined the rebellion in the aftermath of the explosion. There would have been violent retribution from Protestants, with Catholicism crushed. One possible scenario would have seen Britain then transforming into an absolute Protestant monarchy with a young Charles I king at the age of four, and Princess Elizabeth married off to European Protestant Prince. (HUTTON 2005) 

Lady Antonia Fraser adopted a more optimistic view (FRASER 2005). One scenario would be that Lord Northumberland was tipped off not to attend the State opening of Parliament, so survives the massacre. Nominally a Protestant but with Catholic sympathies he may have played a prominent role in any future administration. Prince Henry and Princess Elizabeth, more likely Elizabeth, marries into the French royal family. If Prince Henry did not survive, then more complications as the four year old Prince Charles would have been king of Scotland as would take precedence over Elizabeth in the line of succession. Antonia Fraser though didn't envisage a foreign invasion. 

John Paul Davis more recently  envisaged Prince Henry (born 1594) having been absent from the carnage,at Westminster and having all the potential makings of a good future king, If Henry had perished,then the likelihood of foreign intervention increase, with the young Elizabeth being made queen with a view to marrying a Catholic prince in the future. Perhaps England being drawn into a European Catholic alliance. Scotland would have broken with England (DAVIS 2010)

From further discussion with Mr Davis it became apparent that historians can not necessarily agree whether Henry was going to be present Westminster so survived the blast. Also giving the 'Plotters the extra headache of trying to capture Henry in the aftermath. 

Antonia Fraser took the line that Prince Henry was originally to attend the State Opening and tended to be seen at official ceremonies.(FRASER 1996)  however Royal plans had changed.  Paul Durst maintained that Henry would have "undoubtedly" perished with his father had the plot succeeded (DURST 1970  ). Biographer of Prince Henry Sarah Fraser also counted Henry as having been due to attend (SARAH FRASER 2017) . Antonia Fraser's source for Prince Henry's absence with Thomas Wintour's confession of 23rd November- sometimes dated 25th November -1605. 

" Then was the Parliament anew prorogued until the 5 of November; so as we all went down until some ten days before. When Mr. Catesby came up with Mr. Fawkes to a house by Enfield Chase called White Webbs, whither I came to them, and Mr. Catesby willed me to inquire whether the young Prince[107] came to Parliament, I told him that his Grace thought not to be there. Then must we have our horses, said Mr. Catesby, beyond the water,[108] and provision of more company to surprise the Prince and leave the Duke alone"

Transcribed and Reproduced in What Gunpowder Plot Was by Samuel Gardiner, 1897. 

( Thomas Wintour's confession /National Archive document reference SP/216/114 )

It is not at all clear where Thomas Wintour got the information that the Prince ( Henry) was not going to be present. It is not even clear where Prince Henry was likely to be. If Westminster had been devastated as intended, but Prince Henry was at a royal palace elsewhere, then of course whoever could get hold of the Prince would be in a very powerful position indeed. 

However, the indictment against the surviving Plotters put on trial at Westminster Hall, 27th January 1606 included Prince Henry amongst those they intended to "blow up and tear in pieces" with "one blast " (CARSWELL 1934). 

So the question of the whereabouts of Prince Henry at the state of opening parliament immediately provokes separate 'What Ifs' when trying to envisage a world where the 'one blast' succeeded.In real time Prince Henry died aged eighteen on 6th November 1612, too ill to attend the annual thanksgiving service held on the day before, for the king and country's deliverance from the Gunpowder Treason. 

Thanks to John Paul Davis, Gareth Nolan and all other member of the Guy Fawkes and the Gunpowder Plot Facebook group who have helped in discussing this topic. All errors of fact or misinterpretations are however my responsibility as the author of this post. 

Grateful as ever for the interest shown in 'A Burt Ship' from  blog visitors from all round the world. 

Stay safe and well.

Michael Bully

Brighton

5th November 2022

Books cited.

Donald Carswell  'The Trial of Guy Fawkes and Others ( The Gunpowder Plot) 1934

John Paul Davis ' 'Pity for the Guy'   2010

Paul Durst            ' Intended Treason What Really Happened in the Gunpowder Plot'  1970 

Antonia Fraser     'The Gunpowder Plot-Terror & Faith in 1605'   1996

Antonia Fraser    'The Gunpowder Plot Succeeds' , included in the anthology  'Gunpowder Plots-A Celebration of 400 Years of Bonfire Night'  2005

Sarah Fraser   ' The Prince Who Would Be King- The Life and Death of Henry Stuart'  2017 

Web article. 

'What if the Gunpowder Plot had Succeeded ?'  Professor Ronald, BBC web page article  Hutton, https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/civil_war_revolution/gunpowder_hutton_01.shtml

Fiction 

'Remember, Remember the 6th November'             Tony Morgan

'7th November 1617'                                               Tony Morgan

'Pavane'                                                                   Keith Roberts 

Author Interviews 

interview with Tony Morgan   from 2020 

Interview with John Paul Davis  from 2020

Some other Posts about the Gunpowder Treason From 'A Burnt Ship' 

Gunpowder Scepticism     A conspiracy within a conspiracy ? 

Gunpowder Treason & Plot    Radio Drama from 1980 

The Third Wintour Brother part one   Posts about John Wintour, the younger half brother to Thomas and Robert Wintour

The Third Wintour Brother part two

In quintim Novembris                        In search of poetry related to the Gunpowder Treason 

New blog launched BleakChesneyWold  Charles Dickens & 'dark' 19th century history